Cross-posting the following article by the Korean Sharing Movement posted on the Catholic Institute for Northeast Asia Peace website on December 26, 2024 (source)
Only Peace
The Korean Sharing Movement (KSM)
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is dire. When unmanned aircraft appeared in the skies over Pyongyang, the DPRK (North Korean) Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong threatened a “horrible disaster” and “a harsh price,” and South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense reaffirmed its commitment to “the end of the regime.” The DPRK reportedly ordered its artillery units along the border to stand by, ready to fire. Such escalating military tensions are a stark reminder that the Korean Peninsula remains in an unended state of war, paused only by an armistice.
Globally, there are many regions more alarming and violent than ours. The war in Ukraine and Russia has been going on for over two and a half years, and the war in the Middle East is escalating. The problem is that these wars seem to be connected to us here in South Korea. For one thing, the more Russia is pressured in Ukraine, the more the Russian-Ukrainian war creates a window of opportunity for the DPRK. And the more Russia needs the DPRK’s support, the more the DPRK stands to gain from Russia. If the DPRK were to send troops to Russia’s aid, they would demand different compensation than in the past. South Korea should think very carefully before providing offensive weapons to Ukraine; this war is relevant to us.
What about Israel? Hamas deserves criticism for terrorizing Israeli civilians. However, Netanyahu’s method of warfare—warning civilians of impending attacks and issuing evacuation orders while simultaneously ordering troops to shoot everything that moves—is despicable. However, the reality is that South Korean troops are stationed in Lebanon, where Israel has been conducting an offensive, so we are no longer just helplessly watching from across the river. No matter how far away we may be, there is little happening now that does not concern South Korea.
Although it is unclear how these two wars will play out, it seems certain that the U.S. Presidential election in early November will significantly impact their course. What has become clear throughout these wars is that American influence is no longer what it once was. Despite the U.S. urging restraint, Netanyahu has continued to expand the war in the Middle East, and despite joint support from the United States and its Western allies, Ukraine is not winning. While Trump claims he could end the war in Ukraine within a week if elected, his strategy is likely not what Zelensky wants and may include cutting off aid to Ukraine.
The issue at play is that—in crises like these—one of the most important variables is the people’s choice of their top decision maker. Therefore, we can’t ignore the domestic political factors that shape their choice. The United States’ global influence is not what it used to be as a result of polarization in domestic politics combined with an electoral system that must appeal to American voters. American voters are not very interested in producing public goods or in preserving institutions for the sake of the international community, and American candidates compete to win their votes. This is why, even though South Korea calls the United States our blood brother, our interests are not always the same.
The cases of Ukraine and Israel are even more dire. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky’s approval ratings soared from nearly 30% to around 90%, and Netanyahu appears to be expanding the war in order to recover his low domestic approval rating. Using external crises to overcome domestic political concerns has been a strategy that leaders have used throughout history, both in the East and the West. The consequences of such choices, however, are often tragic for the people.
Let’s return to the Korean Peninsula. It does not require much explanation to understand that the Korean Peninsula is a geopolitical fault line, meaning the region is dangerous even if we do nothing but maintain the status quo. However the current reality is that the North and South are threatening each other’s demise. One leader thinks that by the authority of his declaration the people across the border are no longer ethnically Korean, and the other leader lives aloof in an airplane while his domestic approval ratings fall lower each week. This is a story where in a region that is dangerous-by-default, choices are becoming increasingly perilous by the day. In the United States, which carries enormous influence in this region, we have one Presidential candidate who thinks he’s the only person capable of making withdrawals from the so-called South Korean “money machine” and a candidate who can’t call her Korean policy “strategic patience” (though she may end up practicing strategic patience anyway). These factors indicate the urgency of our situation, and there is no one available to mediate.
These internal and external factors are making the Korean security crisis more dangerous by the day. In this context, South Korea’s decision to actively support Ukraine, ahead of the United States and the West, raises many concerns. It will not be too late to make our decisions on what kind of troops will be deployed, how many, and for how long after the U.S. presidential election and after the situation becomes clearer. We urge the South Korean government to exercise prudence and good judgment to protect our national interests and the safety of our people in the midst of this changing international environment.
Photo sources:
Photo 1 ©Yonhap News Agency
Photo 2 ©Associated Press
The Catholic Institute of Northeast Asia Peace (CINAP) was founded at the site of Korean division in September 2015 by the Uijeongbu Diocese of the Catholic Church. In cooperation not only with the Catholic Church but also with neighboring religious and civil organizations, CINAP is committed to researching and working to establishing peace and reconciliation in the region.
The Korean Sharing Movement (KSM) began at the height of the North Korean food shortage in 1996, formed by civil society figures and six major religious groups, including Catholic, Protestant, and Buddhist organizations. Since then, KSM has conducted a variety of activities, including providing humanitarian aid to North Korea, inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, various policy projects toward establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula, civic engagement activities, and international solidarity projects.
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